法医学杂志

法医学杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 631-635，641.DOI: 10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2020.05.005

所属专题： 虚拟法医人类学

• 专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西省青少年锁骨胸骨端骨龄推断数学模型的构建

张华华1，2， 赵晨3， 刘虎跃4， 李娜1， 王亚辉5， 孙俊红1， 陆利1   

  1. 1. 山西医科大学，山西 太原 030001；2. 太原市中心医院影像科，山西 太原 030009；3. 太原市公安局 小店分局，山西 太原 030032；4. 山西省儿童医院CT室，山西 太原 030013；5. 司法鉴定科学研究院 上海市法医学重点实验室 司法部司法鉴定重点实验室 上海市司法鉴定专业技术服务平台，上海 200063
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-20 发布日期:2020-10-25 出版日期:2020-10-28
  • 通讯作者: 陆利，女，教授，主要从事神经干细胞增殖分化的分子机制研究；E-mail：luli7300@126.com 孙俊红，男，教授，主要从事法医病理学研究；E-mail：sunjunhong146@163.com
  • 作者简介:张华华（1976—），女，主治医师，主要从事医学影像学诊断；E-mail：43190776@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上资助项目（81571859）；上海市法医学重点实验室资助项目（17DZ2273200）；上海市司法鉴定专 业技术服务平台资助项目（19DZ2292700）

Establishment of Mathematical Models for Skeletal Age Determination of Extremitas Sternalis of Clavicle in Shanxi Adolescents

ZHANG Hua-hua1,2 , ZHAO Chen3 , LIU Hu-yue4 , LI Na1 , WANG Ya-hui5 , SUN Jun-hong1 , LU Li1   

  1. 1. Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China; 2. Department of Image, Taiyuan Central Hospital, Taiyuan 030009, China; 3. Xiaodian Branch of Taiyuan Public Security Bureau, Taiyuan 030032, China; 4. Department of CT Room, Children’s Hospital of Shanxi, Taiyuan 030013, China; 5. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine, Key Laboratory of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice, Shanghai Forensic Service Platform, Academy of Forensic Science, Shanghai 200063, China
  • Received:2020-02-20 Online:2020-10-25 Published:2020-10-28

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摘要： 目的 基于我国山西省青少年锁骨胸骨端骨骺发育情况与年龄的相关性，利用多元统计方法建立骨龄推断的数学模型。 方法 利用薄层计算机体层扫描技术对山西省562例胸锁关节样本（454例建模， 108例外部验证）进行扫描，获取容积再现后采集双侧锁骨胸骨端骨骺面积、干骺端面积、锁骨胸骨端骨骺 最长径、干骺端最长径，并分别计算双侧骨骺面积与干骺端面积之比、骨骺最长径与干骺端最长径之比等 指标，再利用多元回归及随机森林判别构建青少年活体年龄推断的数学模型。 结果 观察指标与年龄均具有较强的相关性（r>0.85）。基于双侧骨骺最长径与干骺端最长径之比、骨骺面积与干骺端面积之比建立 的男女性多元线性回归数学模型（4个指标全部进入模型）内部验证准确率（±1.0岁）均在92%以上，108例外部验证准确率（±1.0岁）均大于70%。随机森林判别模型对18.0周岁以上（≥ 18.0周岁）以及未满18.0周 岁的袋外数据错误率均低于2%，108例外部验证结果的准确率也均大于80%。 结论 本研究构建的回归 及判别模型具有一定的可靠性及准确性，可用于山西省青少年活体年龄推断。

关键词: 法医人类学；年龄测定, 骨骼；锁骨胸骨端；数学模型；青少年；山西

Abstract: Objective To develop mathematical models for skeletal age determination with multiple statistic method based on the correlation between age and the growth of the epiphysis of extremitas sternalis of clavicle in Shanxi adolescents. Methods The 562 Shanxi sternoclavicular joint samples（454 cases of modelling, 108 cases of external verification） were scanned by the thin-section computed tomography. After volume rendering was obtained, indicators such as area of epiphysis, area of metaphysis, longest diameter of epiphysis and longest diameter of metaphysis of both extremitas sternalis of clavicle were collected. Indicators such as the ratio of area of epiphysis to area of metaphysis, and the ratio of longest diameter of epiphysis to longest diameter of metaphysis of both sides were calculated. Then multiple linear regression and random forest discriminant models were used to build mathematical models for age determination of adolescents. Results The obtained indicators exhibited a strong correlation with age （r>0.85）. The multiple linear regression model for males and females （all 4 indicators entering the model） based on the ratio of longest diameter of epiphysis to longest diameter of metaphysis and the ratio of area of epiphysis to area of metaphysis had an internal validation accuracy rate （±1.0 year） of over 92% and 108 cases had an external validation accuracy rate of over 70% （±1.0 year）. The out of bag error rates of random forest discriminant models were less than 2% for people over 18.0 years old （≥18.0 years old） and under 18.0 years old. The external validation accuracy rates of the 108 cases were over 80% . Conclusion The regression and discriminant models established in this study have certain reliability and accuracy and can be used in age determination of Shanxi adolescents.

Key words: forensic anthropology, age determination by skeleton, extremitas sternalis of clavicle, mathematical model, adolescents, Shanxi

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