法医学杂志

法医学杂志 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 31-34.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-5619.2016.01.007

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用下颌第三磨牙建立中国汉族18岁评估模型

范  飞1，戴鑫华1，王  亮2，李  媛1，2，张  奎1，邓振华1   

  1. （1. 四川大学华西基础医学与法医学院，四川 成都 610041； 2. 四川鼎诚司法鉴定所，四川 成都 610041）
  • 发布日期:2016-02-25 出版日期:2016-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 邓振华，男，教授，主要从事法医影像学与法医临床学研究；E-mail：fydzh63@163.com
  • 作者简介:范飞（1991—），女，硕士研究生，主要从事法医临床学研究；E-mail：1150173776@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目（81373252）；四川省应用基础研究计划项目（2013JY0148）

Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar

FAN FEI1, DAI XIN-HUA1, WANG LIANG1, LI YUAN1,2, ZHANG KUI1, DENG ZHEN-HUA1   

  1. （1. West China School of Preclinical and Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. Sichuan Dingcheng Forensic Institution, Chengdu 610041, China）
  • Online:2016-02-25 Published:2016-02-28

被引次数

5

摘要： 目的 探讨第三磨牙在活体年龄推断中的价值，评估第三磨牙能否作为18岁年龄节点的判断指标。 方法 应用Orhan改良的Demirjian分级标准对1 845例10~30岁个体的下颌第三磨牙分级并赋分，对性别差异进行t检验，建立第三磨牙推断年龄的三次回归模型。同时绘制各等级年龄累积分布图和ROC曲线评估第三磨牙与18岁间相关性，建立18岁Bayes判别分析方程。 结果 评估者内可信度为0.903。年龄与等级间呈中等相关。D、H等级存在两性差异（P<0.05），余各等级均无性别差异。男性等级1~D，女性等级1~C均小于18岁；男女性等级H均大于18岁。ROC曲线下面积为0.797（P<0.05）。 结论 第三磨牙等级与年龄间有较高的相关性，可用于18岁年龄节点的推断，但仍应结合其他指标相互印证协同鉴定。

关键词: 法医牙科学, 放射摄影术, 全景, 年龄测定, 牙齿, 磨牙, 第三, 下颌骨, 汉族, 四川

Abstract: Objective To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. Methods The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10-30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian’s classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. Results The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H （P＜0.05）. Males at the grades from 1 to D and females at the grades from 1 to C were under 18 years old, and both males and females at grade H were over 18 years old. The area under the ROC curve was 0.797 （P＜0.05）. Conclusion Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

Key words: forensic dentistry, radiography, panoramic, age determination by teeth, molar, third, mandible, han nationality, Sichuan

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