法医学杂志

法医学杂志 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 289-294.DOI: 10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2019.03.005

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于下颌第二、第三磨牙发育建立中国北方人群18周岁评估模型

储光1，2， 韩梦琪1，2， 陈腾3， 周洪1，2， 郭昱成1，2   

  1. 1. 陕西省颅颌面精准医学研究重点实验室，陕西 西安 710004； 2. 西安交通大学口腔医院正畸科，陕西 西安 710004； 3. 西安交通大学医学部法医学院，陕西 西安 710049
  • 发布日期:2019-06-25 出版日期:2019-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 周洪，男，教授，硕导，颅颌面生长发育研究；E-mail：zhouhong@mail.xjtu.edu.cn 郭昱成，男，副研究员，博士研究生合作导师，口腔正畸学和法医齿科学的临床和研究；E-mail：xjtu-guoyu cheng@163.com
  • 作者简介:储光（1994—），男，硕士研究生，主要从事口腔正畸学和法医齿科学的临床和研究；E-mail：771298304@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（81701869）；西安交通大学基本科研业务费资助项目（xjj2017168）

Construction of Age Estimation Model of 18-Year-Olds in the Northern Chinese Population Based on the Development of Mandibular Second and Third Molars

CHU Guang1,2, HAN Meng-qi1,2, CHEN Teng3, ZHOU Hong1,2, GUO Yu-cheng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Shaanxi Province for Craniofacial Precision Medicine Research, Xi’an 710004, China; 2. Department of Orthodontics, Stomatology Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710004, China; 3. College of Medicine and Forensics, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710049, China
  • Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-06-28
  • Supported by:
     

PDF (PC)

644

摘要： 目的 建立中国北方人群下颌第二、第三磨牙发育进程与年龄的线性关系，检验其在推断个体年龄是否年满18周岁的准确性。 方法 收集960例年龄10.00~25.99岁中国北方人群的曲面断层X线片，记录每个样本的性别、出生日期、曲面断层X线片的拍摄日期，利用Demirjian法对左侧下颌第二、第三磨牙的发育阶段进行分期。实验组（760例）建立推断个体年龄是否年满18周岁的Logistic回归方程，验证组（200例）对方程的准确性进行检验。 结果 单独利用第三磨牙得出判断个体年龄是否年满18周岁的公式为logit P1=-18.276+0.494 x1+2.953 x3，结合第二、第三磨牙得出的年龄推断公式为logit P2=-21.045+3.177 x1+0.619 x2+2.088 x3。（x1为性别，男性记为1，女性记为2；x2、x3分别为第二、第三磨牙的发育分期）。该方程正确推断验证组个体是否年满18周岁的准确性在男、女性中分别为88.0%~92.0%、85.0%~88.0%。 结论 根据左下颌第三磨牙的发育建立的年龄推断方程在判断个体是否年满18周岁时具有重要的价值，联合第二磨牙可以提高年龄推断的准确性。

 

关键词: 法医人类学；年龄测定, 牙齿；磨牙, 第三；磨牙, 第二；下颌

Abstract: Objective To establish a linear relationship between age and the development process of the mandibular second, third molars in a northern Chinese population and test its accuracy in inferring whether the subject is over 18 years old. Methods The orthopantograms （OPGs） of 960 northern Chinese people aged between 10.00 to 25.99 years were selected. The gender, birth date, and date of the orthopantograms of each sample were recorded. The development stages of left mandibular second and third molars were divided with Demirjian method. The experimental group （760 individuals） constructed a Logistic regression equation to infer whether the subject is over 18 years old. The validation group （200 individuals） tested the accuracy of the equation. Results When only using third molar, the formula obtained for inferring whether the subject’s age is over 18 years is： logit P1=-18.276+0.494 x1+2.953 x3. When combining the second and the third molars, the formula is： logit P2=-21.045+3.177 x1+0.619 x2+2.088 x3. （x1 stands for gender, male is marked as 1 and female is marked as 2; x2 and x3 stand for the development stage of second molar and third molar, respectively）. The accuracy rates of this equation in estimating whether ages of subjects from the validation group were over 18 years old for males and females were 88.0%-92.0% and 85.0%-88.0%, respectively. Conclusion The age estimation formulas based on the development of mandibular second and third molars have important value in judging whether the individual is over 18 years old. Meanwhile, the accuracy of age estimation can be improved by combining the development of second and third molars together.

Key words: forensic anthropology, age estimation, third molar, second molar, mandibular

中图分类号: