法医学杂志

法医学杂志 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 441-444.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-5619.2015.06.007

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

计算混合样本似然率方法的分析与探讨

刘  莹1，任  贺2，高林林3，石  妍4，陈  冲4，刘雅诚1，4   

  1. 1. 北京市公安局刑事侦查总队，北京 100192； 2. 北京警察学院，北京 102202； 3. 杭州市公安局刑事科学技术研究所，浙江 杭州 310004； 4. 北京通达首诚司法鉴定所，北京 100192
  • 发布日期:2015-12-25 出版日期:2015-12-28
  • 作者简介:刘莹（1976—），女，硕士，副主任法医师，主要从事法医物证学研究；E-mail：snow.ly@163.com

Analysis and Discussion on Calculating Likelihood Ratio of DNA Mixture

LIU YING1, REN HE2, GAO LIN-LIN3, SHI YAN4, CHEN CHONG4, LIU YA-CHENG1,4   

  1. 1. Criminal Investigation Division, Beijing Public Security Bureau, Beijing 100192, China; 2. Beijing Police College, Beijing 102202, China; 3. Institute of Criminal Science and Technology, Hangzhou Public Security Bureau, Hangzhou 310004, China; 4. Beijing Tongda Shoucheng Institute of Forensic Science, Beijing 100192, China
  • Online:2015-12-25 Published:2015-12-28

摘要： 目的 对混合样本似然率的四种计算方法进行分析和探讨。 方法 以2013年CNAS-T0757能力验证的1例样本为例，使用四种常用方法（无限制性组合的似然率法、Clayton等的计算方法、p2定律的计算方法和ISFG推荐方法）分别计算似然率，并进行比较。 结果 Clayton等的计算方法、ISFG推荐方法得出的似然率最高，其次为无限制性组合的似然率法得出的结果，p2定律得出的似然率最低。 结论 无限制性组合的似然率法最大程度兼顾了信息的保留及鉴定人的保护。

关键词: 法医遗传学, 统计学, 似然率, 混合样本

Abstract: Objective To analyze and discuss four methods of calculating likelihood ratio of DNA mixture. Methods In the case with CNAS-T0757 proficiency testing in 2013, the likelihood ratios were calculated and compared among four methods, including unrestricted combinatorial method, Clayton’s method, p2 principle method, and recommendations from ISFG. Results The likelihood ratios were maximum by Clayton’s method and recommendations from ISFG, followed by result of the unrestricted combinational method. The minimum likelihood ratio was obtained by p2 principle. Conclusion The unrestricted combinational method could give furthest consideration to both information preservation and appraiser protection.

Key words: forensic genetics, statistics, likelihood ratio, mixture samples

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