Journal of Forensic Medicine ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 552-558.DOI: 10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2023.431205
• Original Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:2023-12-08
Online:2026-02-27
Published:2025-12-25
CLC Number:
Yu-mei WANG. Postmortem Submersion Interval Estimation of Bodies Recovered from the Jingzhou Reach of the Yangtze River by Aquatic Decomposition Score[J]. Journal of Forensic Medicine, 2025, 41(6): 552-558.
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URL: http://www.fyxzz.cn/EN/10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2023.431205
| 项目 | PMSI | 合计 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0~<2 d | 2~<4 d | 4~<7 d | ≥7 d | ||
| 组别 | |||||
| 夏季 | 12(11.43) | 33(31.43) | 17(16.19) | 7(6.67) | 69(65.71) |
| 冬季 | 7(6.67) | 0(0) | 8(7.62) | 21(20.00) | 36(34.29) |
| 性别 | |||||
| 男性 | 10(9.52) | 21(20.00) | 22(20.95) | 20(19.05) | 73(69.52) |
| 女性 | 9(8.57) | 12(11.43) | 3(2.86) | 8(7.62) | 32(30.48) |
| 年龄/岁 | |||||
| 0~<20 | 2(1.90) | 8(7.62) | 5(4.76) | 1(0.95) | 16(15.24) |
| 20~<40 | 7(6.67) | 11(10.48) | 7(6.67) | 13(12.38) | 38(36.19) |
| 40~<60 | 6(5.71) | 11(10.48) | 7(6.67) | 11(10.48) | 35(33.33) |
| ≥60 | 4(3.81) | 3(2.86) | 6(5.71) | 3(2.86) | 16(15.24) |
Tab. 1 Information of the 105 samples
| 项目 | PMSI | 合计 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0~<2 d | 2~<4 d | 4~<7 d | ≥7 d | ||
| 组别 | |||||
| 夏季 | 12(11.43) | 33(31.43) | 17(16.19) | 7(6.67) | 69(65.71) |
| 冬季 | 7(6.67) | 0(0) | 8(7.62) | 21(20.00) | 36(34.29) |
| 性别 | |||||
| 男性 | 10(9.52) | 21(20.00) | 22(20.95) | 20(19.05) | 73(69.52) |
| 女性 | 9(8.57) | 12(11.43) | 3(2.86) | 8(7.62) | 32(30.48) |
| 年龄/岁 | |||||
| 0~<20 | 2(1.90) | 8(7.62) | 5(4.76) | 1(0.95) | 16(15.24) |
| 20~<40 | 7(6.67) | 11(10.48) | 7(6.67) | 13(12.38) | 38(36.19) |
| 40~<60 | 6(5.71) | 11(10.48) | 7(6.67) | 11(10.48) | 35(33.33) |
| ≥60 | 4(3.81) | 3(2.86) | 6(5.71) | 3(2.86) | 16(15.24) |
| 分值 | 头面颈部 | 躯干 | 四肢 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 无明显变化 | 无明显变化 | 无明显变化 |
| 1 | 皮肤轻微变红;唇色变暗;鸡皮样皮肤 | 皮肤轻微变红;鸡皮样皮肤 | 手掌、足底皮肤轻微发白并有褶皱;鸡皮样皮肤 |
| 2 | 皮肤变红;腐败静脉网 | 腹部、上胸壁皮肤变黄绿色;腐败静脉网 | 手掌、足底皮肤发白、增厚且有褶皱;四肢皮肤轻微变红 |
| 3 | 皮肤变绿;眼睑、嘴唇稍肿胀;腐败水疱;表皮开始剥脱 | 皮肤变绿;腐败水疱;表皮开始剥脱;男性阴囊肿胀 | 手掌、足底皮肤浸软、松动;四肢腐败静脉网 |
| 4 | 皮肤变黑;面部明显肿胀;头发开始脱落;面颈部组织裸露 | 腹部肿胀、皮肤紧绷;胸腹部组织裸露 | 手掌、足底表皮开始剥脱;四肢腐败水疱;四肢表皮开始剥脱 |
| 5 | 头发大面积脱落;面部肿胀稍缓解 | 腹部肿胀缓解;皮肤变黑 | 手掌、足底表皮套状脱落;四肢表皮大面积脱落 |
| 6 | 面部肿胀缓解;颅骨开始白骨化;开始形成尸蜡 | 内部器官和骨骼开始裸露 | 手足肌肉、肌腱裸露;开始形成尸蜡 |
| 7 | 颅骨进一步白骨化;下颌骨脱落 | 内部器官缺失;骨骼裸露增多;开始形成尸蜡 | 手足骨裸露;前臂和小腿的肌肉、肌腱、骨骼裸露 |
| 8 | 颅骨从躯干脱落;大面积形成尸蜡 | 躯干骨骼完全白骨化;关节脱落;大面积形成尸蜡 | 手足骨脱落;上臂、大腿骨骼开始裸露 |
| 9 | / | / | 四肢骨骼完全白骨化;关节分离 |
Tab. 2 Table of aquatic decomposition score
| 分值 | 头面颈部 | 躯干 | 四肢 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 无明显变化 | 无明显变化 | 无明显变化 |
| 1 | 皮肤轻微变红;唇色变暗;鸡皮样皮肤 | 皮肤轻微变红;鸡皮样皮肤 | 手掌、足底皮肤轻微发白并有褶皱;鸡皮样皮肤 |
| 2 | 皮肤变红;腐败静脉网 | 腹部、上胸壁皮肤变黄绿色;腐败静脉网 | 手掌、足底皮肤发白、增厚且有褶皱;四肢皮肤轻微变红 |
| 3 | 皮肤变绿;眼睑、嘴唇稍肿胀;腐败水疱;表皮开始剥脱 | 皮肤变绿;腐败水疱;表皮开始剥脱;男性阴囊肿胀 | 手掌、足底皮肤浸软、松动;四肢腐败静脉网 |
| 4 | 皮肤变黑;面部明显肿胀;头发开始脱落;面颈部组织裸露 | 腹部肿胀、皮肤紧绷;胸腹部组织裸露 | 手掌、足底表皮开始剥脱;四肢腐败水疱;四肢表皮开始剥脱 |
| 5 | 头发大面积脱落;面部肿胀稍缓解 | 腹部肿胀缓解;皮肤变黑 | 手掌、足底表皮套状脱落;四肢表皮大面积脱落 |
| 6 | 面部肿胀缓解;颅骨开始白骨化;开始形成尸蜡 | 内部器官和骨骼开始裸露 | 手足肌肉、肌腱裸露;开始形成尸蜡 |
| 7 | 颅骨进一步白骨化;下颌骨脱落 | 内部器官缺失;骨骼裸露增多;开始形成尸蜡 | 手足骨裸露;前臂和小腿的肌肉、肌腱、骨骼裸露 |
| 8 | 颅骨从躯干脱落;大面积形成尸蜡 | 躯干骨骼完全白骨化;关节脱落;大面积形成尸蜡 | 手足骨脱落;上臂、大腿骨骼开始裸露 |
| 9 | / | / | 四肢骨骼完全白骨化;关节分离 |
| 组别 | TADS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4分 | 4~6分 | 7~9分 | 10~12分 | 13~15分 | >15分 | |
| 夏季 | 7 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 7 |
| 冬季 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
Tab. 3 The TADS distribution of the samplesin two groups
| 组别 | TADS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4分 | 4~6分 | 7~9分 | 10~12分 | 13~15分 | >15分 | |
| 夏季 | 7 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 7 |
| 冬季 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
| TADS/分 | 冬季组 | 夏季组 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMSI预测值 | 95%CI下限 | 95%CI上限 | PMSI预测值 | 95%CI下限 | 95%CI上限 | |
| 1 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 0.98 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| 2 | 0.74 | 0.35 | 1.21 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.66 |
| 3 | 0.95 | 0.48 | 1.48 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| 4 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 1.83 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| 5 | 1.58 | 0.91 | 2.26 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 1.15 |
| 6 | 2.03 | 1.26 | 2.79 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.38 |
| 7 | 2.61 | 1.73 | 3.45 | 1.48 | 1.27 | 1.67 |
| 8 | 3.36 | 2.37 | 4.29 | 1.82 | 1.60 | 2.02 |
| 9 | 4.32 | 3.24 | 5.36 | 2.24 | 2.02 | 2.44 |
| 10 | 5.56 | 4.37 | 6.75 | 2.75 | 2.52 | 2.97 |
| 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 3.38 | 3.14 | 3.64 |
| 12 | 9.21 | 7.64 | 11.21 | 4.16 | 3.87 | 4.50 |
| 13 | 11.85 | 9.82 | 14.85 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 5.60 |
| 14 | 15.25 | 12.43 | 19.99 | 6.30 | 5.75 | 7.02 |
| 15 | 19.63 | 15.57 | 27.17 | 7.75 | 6.96 | 8.83 |
| 16 | 25.25 | 19.37 | 37.18 | 9.54 | 8.41 | 11.13 |
| 17 | 32.49 | 24.01 | 51.09 | 11.74 | 10.15 | 14.05 |
| 18 | 41.81 | 29.69 | 70.37 | 14.44 | 12.24 | 17.75 |
| 19 | 53.80 | 36.65 | 97.10 | 17.76 | 14.75 | 22.44 |
| 20 | 69.22 | 45.17 | 134.14 | 21.85 | 17.77 | 28.37 |
| 21 | 89.07 | 55.64 | 185.48 | 26.89 | 21.40 | 35.89 |
| 22 | 114.60 | 68.49 | 256.62 | 33.08 | 25.77 | 45.40 |
| 23 | 147.46 | 84.26 | 355.22 | 40.69 | 31.02 | 57.44 |
| 24 | 189.74 | 103.63 | 491.88 | 50.06 | 37.33 | 72.70 |
| 25 | 244.14 | 127.42 | 681.33 | 61.59 | 44.93 | 92.00 |
Tab. 4 The predicted PMSI and its 95%CI based on the regression equation
| TADS/分 | 冬季组 | 夏季组 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMSI预测值 | 95%CI下限 | 95%CI上限 | PMSI预测值 | 95%CI下限 | 95%CI上限 | |
| 1 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 0.98 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| 2 | 0.74 | 0.35 | 1.21 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.66 |
| 3 | 0.95 | 0.48 | 1.48 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| 4 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 1.83 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| 5 | 1.58 | 0.91 | 2.26 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 1.15 |
| 6 | 2.03 | 1.26 | 2.79 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.38 |
| 7 | 2.61 | 1.73 | 3.45 | 1.48 | 1.27 | 1.67 |
| 8 | 3.36 | 2.37 | 4.29 | 1.82 | 1.60 | 2.02 |
| 9 | 4.32 | 3.24 | 5.36 | 2.24 | 2.02 | 2.44 |
| 10 | 5.56 | 4.37 | 6.75 | 2.75 | 2.52 | 2.97 |
| 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 3.38 | 3.14 | 3.64 |
| 12 | 9.21 | 7.64 | 11.21 | 4.16 | 3.87 | 4.50 |
| 13 | 11.85 | 9.82 | 14.85 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 5.60 |
| 14 | 15.25 | 12.43 | 19.99 | 6.30 | 5.75 | 7.02 |
| 15 | 19.63 | 15.57 | 27.17 | 7.75 | 6.96 | 8.83 |
| 16 | 25.25 | 19.37 | 37.18 | 9.54 | 8.41 | 11.13 |
| 17 | 32.49 | 24.01 | 51.09 | 11.74 | 10.15 | 14.05 |
| 18 | 41.81 | 29.69 | 70.37 | 14.44 | 12.24 | 17.75 |
| 19 | 53.80 | 36.65 | 97.10 | 17.76 | 14.75 | 22.44 |
| 20 | 69.22 | 45.17 | 134.14 | 21.85 | 17.77 | 28.37 |
| 21 | 89.07 | 55.64 | 185.48 | 26.89 | 21.40 | 35.89 |
| 22 | 114.60 | 68.49 | 256.62 | 33.08 | 25.77 | 45.40 |
| 23 | 147.46 | 84.26 | 355.22 | 40.69 | 31.02 | 57.44 |
| 24 | 189.74 | 103.63 | 491.88 | 50.06 | 37.33 | 72.70 |
| 25 | 244.14 | 127.42 | 681.33 | 61.59 | 44.93 | 92.00 |
| 案例 | TADS/分 | 预测PMSI/d | 95%CI | 实际PMSI/d | 尸体打捞日期 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 下限 | 上限 | |||||
| 1 | 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 8 | 2023.2.3 |
| 2 | 17 | 32.49 | 24.01 | 51.09 | 34 | 2023.3.11 |
| 3 | 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 6 | 2023.5.4 |
| 4 | 12 | 4.16 | 3.87 | 4.50 | 4.12 | 2023.7.2 |
| 5 | 9 | 2.24 | 2.02 | 2.44 | 2 | 2023.7.18 |
| 6 | 17 | 11.74 | 10.15 | 14.05 | 10 | 2023.8.12 |
Tab. 5 Validation results for the six samples
| 案例 | TADS/分 | 预测PMSI/d | 95%CI | 实际PMSI/d | 尸体打捞日期 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 下限 | 上限 | |||||
| 1 | 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 8 | 2023.2.3 |
| 2 | 17 | 32.49 | 24.01 | 51.09 | 34 | 2023.3.11 |
| 3 | 11 | 7.16 | 5.83 | 8.62 | 6 | 2023.5.4 |
| 4 | 12 | 4.16 | 3.87 | 4.50 | 4.12 | 2023.7.2 |
| 5 | 9 | 2.24 | 2.02 | 2.44 | 2 | 2023.7.18 |
| 6 | 17 | 11.74 | 10.15 | 14.05 | 10 | 2023.8.12 |
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